The Dark Forest Strategy in Action

By Tim McGuinness, Ph.D., DFin, MCPO, MAnth – Senior Fellow, Emeritus Council

Introduction

With the world’s attention often focused on Taiwan, many overlook the broader scope of China’s geopolitical ambitions. While Taiwan represents a key point of contention in East Asia, it’s possible that China’s actual game plan reaches far beyond the island nation.

As Russia continues to lose resources and manpower in the Ukraine conflict, China appears to be positioning itself as the next great power in Central Asia, potentially looking to claim large tracts of land and resources. By examining China’s support for Russia’s ongoing war, its strategic interests in land acquisition, and the limitations it faces with Taiwan, we can understand why China’s focus might be shifting westward.

1. China’s Realistic Goals: Political Dominance over Taiwan

Political Control Without Military Risk: China has long sought dominance over Taiwan but knows the risks of a military invasion would be extraordinarily high, likely drawing the United States and other allies into a regional conflict that could be economically devastating. Instead, China has opted for economic integration, political pressure, and cyber tactics to achieve influence over Taiwan.
Maintaining Economic Stability: Taiwan’s economy and its pivotal semiconductor industry are deeply connected to global supply chains, including those in China. A military conflict could sever these connections, endangering both Taiwan’s and China’s economies. Maintaining political dominance without war allows China to preserve these economic benefits.

2. Supporting Russia’s War: Draining Russian Resources

A Calculated Investment: China’s support for Russia—through non-lethal aid, diplomatic backing, and possible covert economic support—serves as a strategic move that weakens Russia over time. With each passing year of conflict in Ukraine, Russia’s military and economic resources dwindle, making it increasingly vulnerable. By encouraging or allowing Russia to continue its war in Ukraine, China can ensure Russia’s decline as a military power.
A War of Attrition in Ukraine as a Boon for China: Every Russian tank lost, every aircraft downed, and every soldier killed in Ukraine ultimately reduces Russia’s ability to project power in Central Asia, a region China has long eyed for expansion. By allowing the war to drag on, China reduces Russia’s defensive capabilities and creates an opportunity for future moves into Central Asia.

3. China’s Support for North Korean Involvement

A Proxy to Divide Global Focus: Allowing or encouraging North Korean troops to support Russia not only boosts Russian forces but also signals to the world that China is not alone in its support for a multipolar world order. North Korea’s involvement, albeit indirect, places additional strain on Ukraine and Western powers without directly implicating China in combat.
Maintaining Denial Plausibility: By channeling support through North Korea, China also distances itself publicly from the direct conflict, reducing diplomatic fallout and maintaining its economic relations with the West. China gains indirectly from this proxy support while leaving Russia and North Korea to face the most immediate international backlash.

4. The Strategic Build-Up of China’s Ground Army

A Focus on Land Warfare Capabilities: In recent years, China has massively expanded its ground forces, creating the world’s largest standing army and reinforcing it with new technologies. Unlike Taiwan, which would require extensive naval and amphibious capabilities, a focus on ground forces points more to an interest in territorial expansion within the Asian continent.
Preparation for a Potential Invasion of Central Asia: Building a large ground force indicates a strategic interest in regions reachable by land. Central Asia, with its vast natural resources and relatively sparse population, presents an attractive target for a land-based military campaign, especially if Russia is unable to defend it effectively.

5. China’s Enduring Need for Land and Resources

Resource Scarcity and Expanding Population: China’s growing population and industrial base drive an insatiable need for resources—land, water, minerals, and agricultural capacity. Central Asia’s vast, resource-rich territories are a natural target for a land-hungry China. The region holds immense reserves of energy, minerals, and arable land, all essential for sustaining China’s future.
Strategic Interest Beyond Taiwan: While Taiwan holds strategic value, it does not offer the land or resource base that China desperately needs. Central Asia, by contrast, provides access to new economic opportunities, and with Russia weakened, it becomes increasingly accessible.

6. China’s Calculations on Russia’s Nuclear Reticence

A Rational Gamble on Russian Restraint: China likely assesses that Russia would be hesitant to use nuclear weapons in response to a regional incursion in Central Asia. For one, deploying nuclear weapons would risk turning Russia into a global pariah, jeopardizing its remaining alliances and economic partnerships.
Belief in Russian Inability to Resist a Massive Land Force: With a weakened military and significant losses from the Ukrainian conflict, Russia would be hard-pressed to defend against a force as large as China’s army. China’s leaders are likely confident that Russia lacks the capacity to withstand an organized, swift invasion, and that Western countries would be unlikely to intervene militarily on Russia’s behalf.

7. The Scenario: A Quick, Decisive Move into Central Asia

Timing the Move: Within the next five years, as Russia’s strength continues to wane, China could make a move into Central Asia, pushing Russia’s boundaries back to the Ural Mountains. Given Russia’s depleted forces and diminished economic base, China might be able to accomplish this with minimal resistance.
Limited Western Intervention: Central Asia, while strategically important, lacks the direct alliances that would compel NATO or Western countries to intervene militarily. Without a clear defensive pact, Central Asia would fall under China’s expanding sphere of influence without significant international resistance.

8. The “Three-Body Problem” and the “Dark Forest” Strategy as Strategic Allegories

Liu Cixin’s science fiction trilogy, The Three-Body Problem, has captured global attention not only for its compelling narrative but also for the deep strategic concepts it presents, which resonate with China’s real-world geopolitical maneuvers. The series explores survival in a chaotic, hostile universe, and it raises questions about the best strategies for nations in a competitive, often predatory global landscape. Two central themes in the books—the “three-body problem” and the “dark forest theory”—offer insights that appear strikingly aligned with China’s current approach to international power dynamics.

The Three-Body Problem: China, the United States, and Russia

In the novel, the “three-body problem” refers to the complex and unpredictable movements of three celestial bodies that influence one another’s trajectories, making it nearly impossible to predict the final outcome. In geopolitics, China, the United States, and Russia resemble this unstable configuration, with each nation’s actions and alliances affecting the balance of power and introducing continual uncertainty. China, by quietly observing Russia’s weakened state through its costly war in Ukraine, seems to be mastering its position within this three-body dynamic, maintaining a calculated distance while subtly influencing outcomes that benefit its long-term strategy.

China’s support for Russia in Ukraine—while measured and indirect—demonstrates its ability to influence Russia’s trajectory without directly committing itself to conflict. This relationship is highly fluid, and much like the three-body problem, it demands constant adjustment and flexibility. China recognizes that direct confrontation with either the U.S. or Russia could upset this delicate balance, but by allowing Russia to bear the brunt of conflict in Ukraine, China strengthens its own position within the tripartite power structure, all while avoiding direct conflict and preserving its resources for future ambitions.

The Dark Forest Theory: Concealment Until the Strike

Perhaps more illuminating than the three-body dynamic itself is the “dark forest theory” presented in The Three-Body Problem series, which serves as a chilling allegory for China’s current strategy. In Liu’s fictional universe, intelligent civilizations view the universe as a “dark forest” in which every civilization must hide or face inevitable extermination. In this dark forest, the best strategy is to remain silent, conceal strength, and avoid drawing attention, only striking when the time is right. For China, the “dark forest” strategy is evident in its pattern of downplaying its military and territorial ambitions, choosing instead to appear passive while steadily building power and waiting for opportunities when rivals are weakened.

China’s “dark forest” approach is particularly relevant in its handling of Taiwan and Central Asia. Publicly, China often presents itself as primarily focused on economic development and stability, subtly portraying itself as an unthreatening actor. Behind this facade, however, China has steadily invested in military growth, advanced technological development, and regional influence through projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, slowly setting the stage for more assertive actions when the time is favorable.

The “dark forest” approach also explains China’s stance on Ukraine and Russia’s involvement. Rather than intervening or condemning Russia, China remains a spectator, watching as Russia drains its own resources. China’s silence in this “dark forest” allows it to maintain the appearance of a cautious, neutral observer, while internally, it may be calculating the future advantages of a severely weakened Russian state. This silent stance minimizes diplomatic fallout with Western countries and keeps other powers guessing about China’s true intentions, reducing scrutiny while it gradually builds its military capabilities.

The Role of Censorship and Strategic Disclosure in China’s Use of Science Fiction

China’s tightly controlled media landscape makes it significant that The Three-Body Problem, a series loaded with geopolitical allegories, was not only allowed to be published but also encouraged and widely distributed. This indicates that the ideas within it—such as the “dark forest” and survival-based strategies—are not seen as threats but rather as strategically useful narratives that align with China’s own long-term objectives. It’s possible that the promotion of such ideas serves as a subtle form of strategic disclosure, hinting at China’s broader intentions while keeping them in the realm of hypothetical fiction.

China has a unique history of using selective transparency as a distraction tactic. The choice to allow The Three-Body Problem to flourish may serve to condition public and intellectual discourse around themes of caution, concealed strength, and survival. These messages resonate with China’s broader doctrine of “hiding capabilities and biding time” (taoguang yanghui)—a strategy that keeps other nations in the dark about China’s true power until it is ready to make decisive moves.

By amplifying narratives that prioritize stealth, patience, and calculated aggression, China subtly influences both its citizens and international observers to understand—if only subliminally—that its current passive posture may not last forever. This strategic ambiguity leaves both rivals and allies uncertain, delaying preemptive responses to China’s military build-up and expansionist tendencies, and ensuring that when China is ready to strike, it faces minimal resistance.

A Strategic Silence Before the Expansion

Through both the “three-body problem” and the “dark forest” concepts, China’s patient and covert approach to regional dominance comes into sharper focus. By allowing Russia to deplete itself in Ukraine, building a powerful ground force, and maintaining silence in the international “dark forest,” China is positioning itself to make substantial territorial gains when its rivals are weakest. The publication and promotion of The Three-Body Problem series reinforce these ideas, serving as both a warning and a message, hinting at China’s long-term ambitions in Central Asia and beyond.

In essence, while the world looks to Taiwan and Ukraine, and now Israel, China’s strategy may be far more subtle and far-reaching, relying on concealed strength, strategic timing, and a carefully curated narrative to set the stage for a potentially transformative expansion.

9. China did this before!

China’s approach to the United States during the Vietnam War bears resemblance to its current strategy regarding Russia and Ukraine. During the Vietnam conflict, China adopted a supportive but indirect stance, allowing the United States to become embroiled in a protracted, resource-draining war in Southeast Asia without directly engaging in combat against U.S. forces. Here’s how China’s actions in the Vietnam era align with its current stance on Russia’s conflict in Ukraine, using similar principles of indirect engagement, strategic patience, and resource depletion:

Indirect Support for Opposing Forces

Vietnam Era: During the Vietnam War, China provided considerable support to North Vietnam in the form of military training, supplies, and technical support. While avoiding direct involvement in combat, China supplied North Vietnam with weapons, funding, and supplies, ensuring the conflict dragged on and continued to sap U.S. resources and morale. This was a calculated way for China to challenge U.S. influence in Asia without the risks of a direct military confrontation.
Ukraine Conflict: Similarly, China is currently supporting Russia in indirect ways—through diplomatic backing, economic trade, and potential low-level logistical support—without directly participating in the conflict. This allows China to weaken one of its potential rivals while conserving its own resources, echoing the same strategy used during the Vietnam War.

Strategic Patience and “Bleeding” the Adversary

Vietnam Era: By backing North Vietnam, China allowed the United States to become mired in a war of attrition. The prolonged U.S. involvement stretched its military capabilities, strained its economy, and created domestic unrest. China benefitted from a weakened U.S. without risking its own forces or provoking direct confrontation.
Ukraine Conflict: In the same way, China’s indirect support for Russia allows it to sit back and watch as Russia depletes its military power and resources. This is a win for China on two fronts: it drains Russian resources, potentially setting the stage for China’s interests in Central Asia, while also occupying U.S. and NATO attention and resources.

Maintaining Regional Influence and Testing the Superpower

Vietnam Era: China viewed the Vietnam War as an opportunity to test the United States and limit its influence in Asia, maintaining its own position as a regional power. By supporting North Vietnam, China indirectly pushed back against U.S. expansion in Asia without a formal military conflict.
Ukraine Conflict: Today, China views the conflict in Ukraine as a means to test Western resolve and unity without getting directly involved. By allowing the conflict to persist, China weakens Russia, observes Western strategies, and tests NATO’s response, all while positioning itself as a powerful, non-confrontational global player.

“Dark Forest” Strategy: Concealing True Intentions

Vietnam Era: During the Vietnam War, China carefully concealed its direct involvement, focusing on providing indirect aid and letting the U.S. believe it could potentially “win” in Vietnam. This allowed China to avoid escalation while still influencing the conflict.
Ukraine Conflict: Similarly, China today takes a cautious public stance on Ukraine, officially calling for peace and downplaying its direct involvement. By concealing its long-term intentions—such as possible future moves in Central Asia—China adheres to a “dark forest” strategy, masking its power and allowing rivals to weaken without overt intervention.

Playing a Long Game for Strategic Gain

Vietnam Era: China’s long-term goal during the Vietnam War was to secure regional stability favorable to its interests, prevent U.S. domination in Asia, and emerge as a regional leader in the post-war period. Supporting North Vietnam enabled China to achieve these goals gradually, avoiding direct confrontation but reaping the rewards of an exhausted adversary.
Ukraine Conflict: China’s patient, indirect involvement in Ukraine aligns with its strategy to emerge as a dominant Eurasian power over the next decade. By allowing Russia to expend its resources, China can step into a leadership role in Eurasia and Central Asia when Russia’s strength is diminished, much like its influence over Southeast Asia grew after the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam.

A Familiar Strategy of Attrition and Influence

China’s historical approach to the United States during the Vietnam War offers a blueprint for its strategy with Russia in Ukraine. In both cases, China uses indirect support to strain a powerful adversary without direct confrontation, favoring a war of attrition that weakens the other nation’s resources and influence. This approach allows China to remain a “silent” power, biding its time while rivals exhaust themselves.

In essence, China’s indirect support strategy—whether in Vietnam or Ukraine—illustrates a sophisticated form of geopolitical patience and strategic control. Just as the Vietnam War weakened the U.S. and shaped its post-war global stance, the Ukraine conflict might pave the way for a new power shift in Eurasia, where China could capitalize on a weakened Russia to assert its own territorial and resource-based ambitions.

10. Chinese Strategic Thinking – The Art of War

Sun Tzu’s The Art of War offers numerous insights that align closely with the strategic approach China appears to be taking. Here are several quotes from the text that resonate with China’s methodical, indirect path to influence and dominance, particularly regarding its handling of the U.S., Russia, and its broader global ambitions.

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

This principle captures the essence of China’s indirect strategy. Rather than risking direct conflict with powerful rivals like the United States or Russia, China seeks to weaken them through indirect means—supporting prolonged conflicts (such as in Vietnam and now Ukraine) that sap their resources and morale. This approach of achieving dominance without direct engagement reflects Sun Tzu’s ideal of winning through strategy rather than battle.

“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”

China has adhered to this principle by presenting itself as a neutral or passive observer in the Russia-Ukraine conflict while quietly building the world’s largest ground force and enhancing its military capabilities. The “dark forest” strategy from The Three-Body Problem, which involves hiding strength until the moment is right, mirrors this concept. China appears restrained and non-threatening, allowing rivals to underestimate its intentions until it is prepared to make decisive moves.

“If your opponent is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him.”

This is particularly relevant in the context of China’s support for Russia in Ukraine. By indirectly supporting a prolonged conflict, China enables an unstable situation that stretches Russian resources thin and may stir tensions between Western countries and Russia. This strategy of “irritation” keeps adversaries embroiled in conflict, ultimately benefiting China as it conserves its strength and waits for opportune moments to advance its interests.

“Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”

China’s approach is one of extreme patience and strategic ambiguity, maintaining “dark and impenetrable” plans that keep rivals uncertain about its true intentions. When the time is right—potentially when Russia is significantly weakened—China could “fall like a thunderbolt” into Central Asia or other regions, asserting territorial control swiftly with minimal resistance.

“When the enemy is relaxed, make them toil. When full, starve them. When settled, make them move.”

China’s indirect role in prolonged conflicts serves to exhaust and wear down rival nations. By allowing Russia to be drained in Ukraine, China follows this principle, quietly watching as Russia becomes weaker, effectively “making them toil.” This also applies to China’s support for North Korea, whose involvement adds further strain on the West and divides global focus, to China’s advantage.

“In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity.”

China appears to be capitalizing on the chaos and disorder created by the Ukraine conflict. As Russia’s military capacity declines and Western countries focus on European security, China sees an opportunity to strengthen its influence and military presence, particularly in Central Asia. This reflects Sun Tzu’s advice to identify and exploit opportunities that arise from the chaos surrounding one’s adversaries.

“He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious.”

China demonstrates a strong understanding of when to avoid direct confrontation. By abstaining from open conflict with either the U.S. or Russia, China adheres to Sun Tzu’s advice to assess when fighting is advantageous. China understands that it can achieve its goals more effectively by waiting for the right moment, such as when rivals are exhausted or distracted.

“The wise warrior avoids the battle.”

This principle speaks to China’s cautious, calculated avoidance of direct military conflict. Instead of engaging in battles, it might not yet be fully prepared for—such as a full-scale invasion of Taiwan—China focuses on strengthening its position and influence without triggering direct opposition. Its restraint serves its long-term goals, ensuring it remains well-prepared when it finally decides to act.

“Move swift as the Wind and closely-formed as the Wood. Attack like the Fire and be still as the Mountain.”

China’s military build-up reflects the “still as the Mountain” aspect of this principle, creating a foundation of strength without broadcasting aggressive intentions. When the time comes, China may indeed “move swift as the Wind” into regions like Central Asia, exploiting the opportunities it has cultivated through years of strategic patience and restraint.

“Engage people with what they expect; it is what they are able to discern and confirms their projections. It settles them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment — that which they cannot anticipate.”

China’s emphasis on economic development, diplomatic caution, and non-interventionist public statements have created an image of a restrained and peaceful nation. This calculated image aligns with what the world expects, keeping adversaries occupied while China prepares for moves they might not anticipate. When China finally takes action, it could catch rivals off-guard, having carefully managed perceptions to create a false sense of security.

The Art of War

These quotes from The Art of War encapsulate the essence of China’s modern geopolitical strategy: calculated restraint, indirect influence, exploitation of rivals’ weaknesses, and strategic patience. Through a combination of appearing passive, allowing rivals to weaken themselves, and maintaining secrecy about its ultimate goals, China is adhering closely to Sun Tzu’s teachings, positioning itself to expand its influence and achieve dominance without risking open conflict.

Conclusions

China’s tacit support for Russia’s involvement in Ukraine, combined with its strategic military build-up and regional ambitions, paints a picture of a long-term game. Instead of focusing exclusively on Taiwan, China may be setting the stage for a westward push into Central Asia, seeking to expand its territory and secure vital resources. With Russia’s weakened military and a calculated belief that nuclear weapons won’t come into play, China appears to be positioning itself as the next dominant force in Eurasia, potentially changing the landscape of global power for decades to come.

China’s Calculated Path to Power

China’s approach to global power dynamics reflects a carefully calibrated, long-term strategy rooted in indirect influence, patience, and tactical restraint. By observing and sometimes quietly supporting conflicts that weaken its rivals—whether through historical support for North Vietnam against the United States or recent diplomatic and economic backing for Russia in Ukraine—China has demonstrated an ability to capitalize on the vulnerabilities of others while conserving its own resources. This approach allows China to weaken potential adversaries without direct confrontation, adhering to a principle that prioritizes long-term stability and dominance over immediate, high-risk engagements.

China’s “dark forest” strategy, as popularized by the Three-Body Problem series, epitomizes its international posture: conceal power, appear non-threatening, and allow rivals to weaken themselves through their own conflicts and overextensions. Just as the United States suffered lasting repercussions from its involvement in Vietnam, Russia now faces a depleted military and economic base due to its prolonged engagement in Ukraine. China’s restrained yet watchful stance reveals strategic patience, allowing it to grow its military might and regional influence with minimal resistance.

Furthermore, China’s massive investment in its ground forces, coupled with its ambitions in Central Asia, suggests that its true interests may lie in territorial expansion westward rather than an immediate push for Taiwan. Central Asia, with its vast resources and strategic significance, offers China what it fundamentally needs: land, resources, and influence over a region pivotal to Eurasian trade routes. As Russia becomes increasingly vulnerable, China could leverage its new military strength to secure a vast new frontier, filling the power vacuum left by a diminished Russia.

In the broader geopolitical landscape, China’s strategy serves as both a warning and a lesson in modern power politics. By mastering indirect influence and maintaining strategic ambiguity, China positions itself as a rising power in a multipolar world, where it can selectively choose its battles and pursue its ambitions without triggering immediate resistance. As Western nations focus on containing Russia, China’s quiet consolidation of strength may well shift the global balance, reshaping the political map of Eurasia and securing its place as a central force for decades to come. In the end, China’s success may lie not in the battles it fights but in the ones it carefully avoids—allowing its rivals to weaken while it builds the future it envisions, step by calculated step.

Why China’s Real Goal Is Central Asia, Not Taiwan – 2024